Two of the nation's premiere football programs will face off Thursday evening in the 22nd annual Champs Sports Bowl when the 8-4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the 8-4 Florida State Seminoles in Orlando. It will be the second ever bowl game matchup between the two schools, as the Seminoles defeated the Irish 31-26 in the 1996 Orange Bowl.
The most famous meeting, billed as the oft-used phrase "Game of the Century", was on November 13, 1993, when top-ranked FSU traveled to South Bend to take on #2 Notre Dame. It was the beginning of the now weekly tradition of ESPN's College Gameday being on-campus, and NBC featured one of the greatest intros to a game:
The Irish won that day 31-24, lost the following week at home to Boston College, and Florida State defeated Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, giving former Head Coach Bobby Bowden his first National Championship.
The two schools have met only six times previously, with FSU leading the series 4-2. The last time they met was in 2003, where Craphonso Thorpe set a ND Opponents' record for receiving yards with 217 in a 37-0 destruction of the Irish. The only other ND win in the series other than '93 was in 2002, a 31-17 win in Tallahassee, made closer by two late TDs by FSU.
This season has been a roller-coaster for the Irish, as turnovers killed their chances of winning the first two weeks, ending any momentum they may have had at the end of last season. They then rattled off four straight wins before coming out completely flat against USC in their first home night game in 21 years, losing 31-17. They then ran off another four wins in a row, including three teams from the ACC, before losing in their season finale at Stanford. Before the season many Irish fans would have been content with an 8-4 record, coming off their 8-5 2010 campaign, but the way things worked out have some wondering what could have been for the 2011 Irish.
Florida State had high expectations early on in 2011, being ranked as high as #5 before their showdown with #1 ranked Oklahoma, a 23-13 home loss that started a three game losing streak, thanks in large part to starting QB E.J. Manuel getting hurt towards the end of the Oklahoma game, and not coming back until they were down 16-7 against Wake Forest three weeks later. They then ran off five straight wins before a late season home loss to Virginia and a 21-7 win over heated rival Florida. For a team that was primed for a BCS bowl before the season, the 8-4 finish also left them desiring a little more.
One of the biggest matchups will be the Irish Defensive Front against the Florida State Offensive Line. According to Seminoles.com Senior Writer Brandon Mellor, the Seminoles could start four Freshmen on the O-Line, a unit that was already in the bottom 10 nationally in Sacks allowed. The Irish will get Stephon Tuitt back after he missed the final two games due to an illness. Also keep an eye on DE Aaron Lynch, who is originally from Florida, and has caused havoc all season for opposing QBs, and Butkus Award finalist LB Manti Te'o, who has already decided to return to ND for his senior season.
The FSU Offense as a whole really struggled this season gaining yards, but didn't have the same problems scoring points, which is the name of the game. They were very efficient throwing the ball, ranking 17th nationally. Rodney Smith and Rashad Greene are the top two WRs for the Seminoles, and they'll face an Irish pass defense that was pretty middle of the pack nationally, but is filled with upperclassmen such as Seniors Harrison Smith and Robert Blanton.
The Seminoles have depended on their defense all season, and that'll be no different Thursday night. They are ranked in the top 10 nationally in Total Defense, Scoring Defense, and Rush Defense, and will be the best defense the Irish Offense will have faced all season. The biggest key for starting QB Tommy Rees will be to not turn the ball over, as each Irish loss can be directly attributed to turnovers. FSU has forced 20 turnovers this season, including 13 interceptions. A couple of turnovers for the Irish could be disastrous, especially if they happen in FSU territory.
Rees was benched for the second half against Stanford and Freshman Andrew Hendrix led the Irish offense to two second half TDs, and many thought Hendrix would be the choice to start in the bowl game. Head Coach Brian Kelly put that to rest the week after the finale, naming Rees the starter. However, he made sure to say Hendrix will play during the game, and he didn't rule out Hendrix playing a long time:
"The first time Andrew goes in there, they’re going to blitz him," Kelly said. "At least I would because he didn’t do as well picking up the blitz against Stanford when he went in there late. As long as he does that, he can play the entire game if it works that way."
This little gamesmanship played by Kelly may help them gain a slight advantage over a very good FSU Defense, as the two QBs have very different styles. One constant either QB will have is Senior WR Michael Floyd, who had a big day in last season's Sun Bowl against Miami, and is being talked about as a consensus top 20 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. His 95 catches and 1106 yards are tops on the team, and he had eight receiving TDs, and his first rushing TD, to top off his senior season. They'll also have TE Tyler Eifert, who has 57 catches and over 700 yards rushing, and has not determined whether he'll enter the draft early in 2012. Eifert will have to contend with Sophomore Safety Lamarcus Joyner, who has three interceptions on the season along with 47 tackles.
Field Position should play a part in this matchup as well, and it will definitely favor Florida State. The Seminoles are tops in the NCAA when it comes to Net Punting, gaining over 42 yards on each punt. On the flip side, Notre Dame has a total of 3 punt return yards on the season. Yes, only 3. The Irish will have to sustain longer drives, against a very good defense, to win.
This game should be low scoring, and will probably come down to the fourth quarter. If either team can gain a turnover advantage, they will win this game. The Irish are more susceptible to the turnover, so it makes sense they'll be more likely to screw up than the Seminoles.
SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Florida State 17, Notre Dame 16
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