College football ended Monday night, and we now turn to college basketball which leaves us with an undebatable National Champion. The road to March Madness has started with conference play beginning in earnest. I won’t begin conference previews for another couple weeks as we draw closer to March. I did look last week at five teams looking to end droughts of making the NCAA Tournament. This time I look at five teams who went last year that are now in danger of missing this year’s dance.
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Butler (9-8, 3-2 Horizon). The Bulldogs under Brad Stevens have had an amazing run of making back-to-back National Title games coming up just short against national powerhouses Duke and Connecticut. But, with the early defections to the NBA of Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack, Butler has struggled in the 2011-2012 season. Butler has a couple of nice wins over Purdue and Stanford, but they are around .500 and also lost to in-state rivals Evansville and Ball St. To make this year’s March Madness, they will have to win the Horizon League. An at-large birth is out of reach, and they currently trail Cleveland St., Milwaukee, and Youngstown St. for the conference lead by a game.
Without Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack, the Butler Bulldogs might not even make the NCAA Tournament this March to see if they can make an amazing third straight run to the Championship Game.
Villanova (8-8, 1-3 Big East). It was a banner year for the Big East last season, but the conference will have a hard time matching the 11 bids it received. Under Jay Wright, Villanova has made seven straight NCAA tournaments having not missed March Madness since 2003-2004. The Wildcats have a lot of work to do this year in the Big East if they want to make it eight straight trips. They are 1-3 in the Big East, and the road doesn’t get any easier hosting No.1 Syracuse tonight followed by road trips to Cincinnati, St. John’s and Louisville in the next five games.
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VCU (11-5, 2-2 Colonial). VCU stunned a lot of experts by not only making last year’s tournament but making a run to the Final Four. You can throw myself on that list. Although VCU was on my Bubble Watch for last season, I had them missing the NCAA Tournament. The Colonial Athletic Association is unlikely to place another three teams in the NCAA Tournament like they did last season. VCU was unable to add to their at-large resume losing to the three power conference schools they faced (Alabama, Seton Hall, and Georgia Tech), and the Rams have dropped their last two CAA games to Drexel and Georgia St.
Arizona (11-5, 2-1 Pac 12). Arizona looks to be a team that will be firmly planted on the bubble until Selection Sunday. After a down first season by Arizona standards, Sean Miller turned the Wildcats around in his second season winning 30 games and making it to the Elite Eight losing to eventual NCAA Champion Connecticut. Even with the loss of Derrick Williams to the NBA, Arizona was a popular preseason Top 25 pick, and they began the season in the polls. However, the Wildcats dropped out with an unimpressive non-conference performance. Their best win was over a 9-6 Clemson team from the ACC; they lost to Florida, San Diego St., Mississippi St., and Gonzaga. None of those are bad losses, but they would’ve helped Arizona’s resume come March.
Georgia (9-7, 0-2 SEC). Like VCU, Georgia was another team that surprised experts by making the NCAA Tournament. A bubble resident all season, Georgia may not even be in that good of shape come March. Georgia knew they would have a tough time duplicating last year’s success with the loss of Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie to the NBA. Credit the Bulldogs for having an ambitious schedule but they endured a four game losing streak in non-conference to Xavier, Colorado, Cincinnati, and Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is under .500, but the other three teams will be flirting with NCAA Tournament bids come March. Georgia did defeat Notre Dame, but they’ve started the SEC slow losing to Alabama and then Florida by 22 points last night.
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